地电前兆异常特征及澜沧—耿马7.6级等地震预报问题     

汪志亮  王志贤 《地震》1995,(3):240-245

深入研究了全国地电台网内M_s≥5.0的45次地电前兆震例,用统计方法按大震、强震、中强地震分别研究其地电前兆特征。 通过研究得到:大震地电阻率异常范围,其半径超过200km,在700km以内,异常时间在12—20个月内发震的概率最高,为97.8％;强震地电阻率异常范围大多在300km以内,趋势异常的时间在12个月以内发震的概率最高,为86.5％;中强地震地电阻率异常范围,半径一般在200km以内,趋势异常时间在180天之内发震的概率最高,为95.0％。大震、强震、中强地震地电趋势异常时间似乎存在着20个月、12个月、6个月三个不同的异常时间段。 临震异常类型一般可分为加速型、转向型和波动型三类。对7级和7级以上大震能观测到临震异常前兆的震例只有33.3％、强震和中强地震能观测到临震异常前兆的震例均为50.0％。出现临震异常后1—20天发震的概率最高,达94.4％。 1988年11月以来,西部地区先后发生澜沧-耿马7.6、巴塘6.7、天祝6.2级地震。震前都曾依据地电前兆短临异常特征,作过某种程度的监测预报工作,取得了较好的短临预报效果。  相似文献   

铁路隧道GPS网布设的精度分析     

姚连璧  沈云中  胡丛玮  刘大杰 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》1997,(2)

探讨了隧道ＧＰＳ网在设计阶段估算横向贯通误差的基本理论，对按该理论编制的软件进行了计算正确性的验证。结合铁路测量规则对不同长度的隧道ＧＰＳ网横向贯通误差进行了计算分析，提出了分设隧道ＧＰＳ网的一些基本原则和隧道ＧＰＳ网横向贯通误差的近似估算方法  相似文献   

The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Marcel van der Perk  Marc F. P. Bierkens 《Journal of Hydrology》1997,200(1-4):307-322

The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The water quality model simulates the steady state concentration profiles of chloride, phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate as a function of distance along a river. The water quality model with the best combination of parameter values simulates the observed concentrations very well. However, the range of possible modelled concentrations obtained for other more or less equally eligible combinations of parameter values is rather wide. This range in model outcomes reflects possible errors in the model parameters. Discrepancies between the range in model outcomes and the validation data set are only caused by errors in model structure, or (measurement) errors in boundary conditions or input variables. In this sense the validation procedure is a test of model capability, where the effects of calibration errors are filtered out. It is concluded that, despite some slight deviations between model outcome and observations, the model is successful in simulating the spatial pattern of nutrient concentrations in the Biebrza River.  相似文献   

交通经济带的基础理论及其生命周期模式研究   总被引：37，自引：3，他引：37  

韩增林  杨荫凯  张文尝  尤飞 《地理科学》2000,20(4):295-300

随着生产力的发展，区域经济系统的空间演化与交通运输线的联系日益密切，一种依托交通干线不断集散、融合人口、产业、城镇、物流、能流、信息流的线状空间地域综合体不断生长并迅速发展，我们将这种独特的空间地域综合体称为交通经济带（Ｔｒａｆｆｉｃ Ｅｃｏｎｏｍｉｃ Ｂｅｌｔ）。本文系统阐述了交通经济带的基本概念、基本类型、基本性质，并创建性地提出了交通经济带的生命周期理论。  相似文献   

Robust估计的算法优化   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

苏思光  戴嘉芸 《测绘学报》1996,25(2):151-155

本文分析了Ｒｏｂｕｓｔ估计收敛慢的原因，提出以最小二乘平差的残差（Ｖ）为初始信息，用Ｌ１估计的权函数所计算的权力初始权，根据迭代计算的残差的大小，及残差的变化所提供的信息，构造出加速收敛的算法，计算结果表明，较之一般的方法，迭代次数显著减少，辨识杠杆点含粗差的能力有较大提高，即搜索粗差的效率有很大提高。  相似文献   

金沙江流域（云南段）砂金成因类型及其找矿前景     

黄仲权  史清琴 《云南地质》2001,20(3):270-278

根据成矿作用、成矿环境及矿床特征，金沙江流域（云南段）砂金矿床，可划分为：残坡积、洪积、冲洪积、冲积和冰碛等五种类型。成矿主要受碰撞带、深大断裂、大断裂及其派生断裂、基底岩石、地貌、水质和水化学环境等综合控制。以巨甸－大具及中江街－金江街两片区最具有找矿前景。  相似文献   

On estimating frequency-magnitude relations from heterogeneous catalogs     

Stefano Tinti  Rossella Rimondi  Francesco Mulargia 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1987,125(1):1-18

The paper studies the effect of magnitude errors on heterogeneous catalogs, by applying the apparent magnitude theory (seeTinti andMulargia, 1985a), which proves to be the most natural and rigorous approach to the problem. Heterogeneities in seismic catalogs are due to a number of various sources and affect both instrumental as well as noninstrumental earthquake compilations.The most frequent basis of heterogeneity is certainly that the recent instrumental records are to be combined with the historic and prehistoric event listings to secure a time coverage, considerably longer than the recurrence time of the major earthquakes. Therefore the case which attracts the greatest attention in the present analysis is that of a catalog consisting of a subset of higher quality data, generallyS ₁, spanning the interval T ₁ (the instrumental catalog), and of a second subset of more uncertain magnitude determination, generallyS ₂, covering a vastly longer interval T ₂ (the historic and/or the geologic catalog). The magnitude threshold of the subcatalogS ₁ is supposedly smaller than that ofS ₂, which, as we will see, is one of the major causes of discrepancy between the apparent magnitude and the true magnitude distributions. We will further suppose that true magnitude occurrences conform to theGutenberg-Richter (GR) law, because the assumption simplified the analysis without reducing the relevancy of our findings.The main results are: 1) the apparent occurrence rate exceeds the true occurrence rate from a certain magnitude onward, saym _GR; 2) the apparent occurrence rate shows two distinct GR regimes separated by an intermediate transition region. The offset between the two regimes is the essential outcome ofS ₁ being heterogeneous with respect toS ₂. The most important consequences of this study are that: 1) it provides a basis to infer the parameters of the true magnitude distribution, by correcting the bias deriving from heterogeneous magnitude errors; 2) it demonstrates that the double GR decay, that several authors have taken as the incontestable proof of the failure of the GR law and of the experimental evidence of the characteristic earthquake theory, is instead perfectly consistent with a GR-type seismicity.  相似文献   

一致凸Banach空间中渐近非扩张映射的收敛定理     

柏传志 《南京气象学院学报》2003,26(2):281-284

在一致凸Banach(巴拿赫)空间中研究了渐近非扩张映射的带误差的Ishikawa迭代序列的收敛性。结果推广了原来的定理。  相似文献   

相位误差、位置误差和灰度误差三者关系及SAR原始图像像元不确定性     

葛咏  王劲峰  梁怡  王贞松 《遥感学报》2003,7(3):285-291

由于SAR遥感的独特优势，使它得到了广泛的应用。因此，对SAR图像的不确定性研究也越来越必要和迫切了。针对数据分析方法的不足，该文着重从机理的角度探讨SAR原始像元的不确定性。相位误差、位置误差和灰度误差三者关系、各种误差分类和综合以及这些误差对SAR原始像元不确定性作用等问题往往是困扰从机理角度对SAR图像不确定性研究的主要障碍，该文重点讨论这些问题。  相似文献   

风沙地区遥感图像分析及其对选线的意义   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

卓宝熙 《国土资源遥感》2003,14(4):1-5

简要叙述了利用遥感图像进行沙丘研究的优越性,重点介绍了沙漠地区各种类型沙丘的影像特征,并以其形态特征分析为依据,对某些类型沙丘的成因提出了看法,同时指出遥感图像沙丘判释对线路选线的意义及风沙与铁路、公路选线的关系等。  相似文献